For those who haven’t seen the anime series Sword Art Online, it’s quite worth watching, particularly for gamers who don’t mind seeing some really impressive technology that will likely take decades to reach us regular users. The series revolves around the fictional video game of the same name, a game so immersive that users are able to taste food, feel pain, and essentially live an entire life online. The question that generally follows is a variant on “when do we get access to this kind of technology,” and the answer will likely be one most gamers don’t want to hear.
We know that technology’s come a very long way in a very short time; considering the technological landscape of just the last 100 years, we went from a world that saw the first transcontinental telephone call from San Francisco to New York, to a world where such calls take place every minute. A basic law governs this technological explosion known as Moore’s Law, and it’s where we start. Moore’s Law, simplified greatly, notes that on average computing power doubles every two years. At that rate, the computers of even just a decade from now will be substantially more powerful than the current models.
The power will likely be there, but we have to consider everything else that an actual, full Sword Art Online-style game will involve. If we consider a Sword Art Online game in the simplest visual sense, we might well be there in a couple years. Give the Oculus Rift and similar VR devices some time to make it on the market, and we’ll be able to play Sword Art Online in much the same way we play World of Warcraft now. There are actually Sword Art Online games available; recently PlayStation Lifestyle reviewed Sword Art Online Re: Hollow Fragment, calling it a “preparation” for the upcoming release of Sword Art Online: Lost Song.
These aren’t true Sword Art Online-style games, however; there’s a lot missing from the game as depicted in the anime. It’s clear that Sword Art Online players can feel things as if they were in the real world, and that requires a tool known as haptic feedback. Haptic feedback uses a user’s own sense of touch to transmit information back to a user. Some haptic feedback systems are already on hand, but these are still in comparatively early stages of development. Haptic feedback systems that can simulate textures, from the hard haft of a sword to the slimy roughness of an enemy monster’s flesh, are still some ways off.
Beyond that, the concept of bringing smell and taste to the Web is even more difficult. A development known as the “multi-sensory Internet” may actually deliver, and Adrian Cheok is one of the biggest developers in the field. A professor of pervasive computing for City University London, Cheok has three devices on his desk that represent the future, one his own invention. One, a device that connects to a smartphone and delivers a scent in place of a ringtone. Two, a plexiglass cube that users can stick their tongue inside to taste flavors by Internet delivery. Three, a “kissing machine,” a device with a pressure sensor and movable peg, allowing users to insert a tongue and transfer such movements remotely, where the peg responds accordingly. Three of the major components of Sword Art Online are found right there; just ask the series’ protagonists Kazuto and Asuna.
Thus we see that the components to provide a complete experience largely already exist. However, most of these components aren’t commercially available, and it may take years or even decades to reach that point. Cheok has been working on transmitting such things remotely since 2005, as far back as his Poultry Internet project which sought to let him hug a chicken via remote. If we remember the principles of Moore’s Law, however, suggesting that processing power doubles every two years, we may have a theory in mind. Cheok was starting to hug a chicken remotely in 2005, and now we know he has several sensation-transmitting prototypes on his desk. With that as a metric, we might be able to infer that going from concept to prototype in 10 years might mean prototype to commercial release in another 10. Add on another five years for a fudge factor of sorts to encompass those random occurrences that so often happen, and perhaps in 15 years, we too will be able to enter a world where we can taste the food, feel the weight of a blade in our hands, and make out enthusiastically with the residents.
It may not take that long—Moore’s Law can make for some very funny results—but we’ve already seen what 10 to 15 years has meant for computing by just looking at the differences between 2000 and 2015. These results suggest that 2025 – 2030 will be markedly different, but sufficiently different to produce a Sword Art Online-style experience? That’s anyone’s guess, though mine says it’s likely to happen.